Evaluating Flacco - Part I

The honest truth about the NFL Draft is that it's a crapshoot. Even Mel Kiper and Todd McShay will tell you that. Guys rise up from nowhere (Willie Parker) and guys trip over their own shoelaces (Cedric Benson) when they finally get into the NFL.

Lately I've been reading up on the huge draft busts of the past to see what they have in common, and so far, I've seen that maturity can be a big factor in how draft choices pan out.

Classic example: Peyton Manning was the senior QB at Tennessee that had a good arm and was considered more grown-up, but athletically limited. Ryan Leaf was the kid out of Washington State with the actual "rocket arm" that Manning talks about in his commercials. At the time, Leaf was considered to have higher upside, while Peyton was the pro-ready prospect. No matter what Colt GM Bill Polian says, he was on the right side of a lucky guess. One is going to be a top-3 greatest QB ever when he retires, the other is the most epic flameout of the league ever.

Two other prospects that represent the maturity theory:

- Brian Bosworth: Just watch this video segment. His cultural celebrity eclipsed his NFL playing ability.

- Tony Madarich: Reading this SI article, how could people not know this guy was going to be a bust? He's a jerk!

So after my initial reaction of "Boller: Episode II" to the Joe Flacco selection, I cleared my head and began to look online for more about the guy. Knee-jerk thoughts are not the way to evaluate how scouting departments select the marquee picks of their drafts.

Luckily, people have done most of this work for me.

Dewey Hammond, who is one of the greatest blogging advocates and enablers today in my opinion, has developed his reputation behind the Yardbarker Network to the point where he's treated like a legitimate news organization representative. He gets interviews with athletes and direct-to-audience content like no one else does. Thankfully, he's also a Baltimore Ravens fan.

He somehow got in touch with Joltin' Joe Flacco and did this interview.

Reebok is trotting this man out, because he also did this interview with Keith Van Valkenberg of the Baltimore Sun, of whom I've become a fan in recent weeks.

Maybe I'm just being optimistic, but I feel like the general impression of Flacco is that he's a sharp guy that isn't afraid to be a little light-hearted. Ravens coaches apparently drafted him because of his physical tools and "coachability" or the way he actually executes what he's asked to do. Reports are that when he completed his workouts for the Ravens, he listened carefully to their suggestions and vastly improved over the course of the few days he was there.

This represents to me a kind of maturity that is a promising sign in a young prospect. Not every first-round draft pick has the character or the demeanor to work hard and do things a different way, even if it's difficult.

Furthermore, I've watched some of his video. On YouTube, it's a two-part series:

Part One

Part Two


What I see in these videos that the guy obviously has a big arm - he makes 40-yard throws with ease. But everybody already knows that. His accuracy is fair to middling; he'll have to work on his short-range accuracy. But he also has great poise and pocket sense. He stands in to take the hit, but he also knows when the hit is coming. He also doesn't have the bad habit of stutter stepping when he feels the heat, like Boller would do. I think we're dealing with more of a Jay Cutler than a Boller, hopefully.

From a personal standpoint, I'm warming up to the guy. I fully recognize that he was drafted as a project player and has a lot of development to do before he sits behind center in a real game. But even knowing these conditions, I feel better about the pick than I did before (similar to Rick Maese in this column). For a project, he seems to have everything you could reasonably hope for, and someday he could come out as one of the better QBs in this draft.

I'm not saying he's our savior, and I'm definitely not saying he's the best option we have this year, and I'm most definitely not saying he should win the QB battle out of training camp. The Ravens made their choice with the way they drafted this year - the organization is retooling. New coach, new personalities, project players warming up to their roles: that doesn't measure up to a winning season this year, especially when the Browns and the Steelers are going to be so competitive.

Flacco is an investment, something for next year or the year after that. Hopefully folks like Ozzie, Rex Ryan, Ray-Ray, Derrick Mason, Terrell Suggs and all the other vets are still around when it starts paying dividends. But for the organization, this could be - and I stress could be - the turnaround pick for this franchise.

The reason this post is labelled Part I is because everybody knows that draft picks cannot be evaluated for some time until they're actually in the game for awhile. I anticipate coming back to this selection several times over the next few years and seeing how he's progressing. This only counts as initial reaction and observation - nothing is written in stone.

Photo Credit: Baltimore Sun, The Tide Druid

Terp Prospects in the NFL Draft

Since this weekend is a huge holiday to football freaks and geeks everywhere, I thought it might be prudent to write some more about the NFL Draft. However, for the Maryland folks out there who don't even know how to spell Vernon "Golstin," here's a breakdown of how players from Maryland will do this Saturday and Sunday with their '07 stats, various other projections - and a little INRCP spin, of course. I also called resident draft expert Kyle Miller, who did our mock draft, to help me out.

Hint: many of these projections will say "undrafted."

Let's go:

ERIN HENDERSON

Position: Linebacker
Key 2007 Stats: 133 tackles, 11 for a loss despite missing time with well-documented injuries
Biggest Plus: Has an instinct for the run and always seems to know where the play is going to be
Biggest Knock: Not terribly well-rounded in coverage or pass-rushing and has an injury history
ESPN Projection: Round 3 or 4 pick
NFL Draft Countdown Projection: Round 3 pick, possibly round 2
INRCP Take: Henderson was everyone's darling this past year and the face of a team that lacked great leadership. Unfortunately injuries prevented him from having a Butkus-worthy season. His combine results did little to move him up boards, and most scouts consider his speed very average for playing outside linebacker. A detailed catalog of nicks and tears on his body causes many teams worry as well. Kyle Miller says, "He can fit in a 3-4 or a 4-3 defense, but he's not really special in either. He's not great in man-to-man coverage but decent in zone. He probably won't be asked to do much more than clog up the run in the NFL." It's also our opinion that Henderson would probably thrive in the middle linebacker position, where he would be asked to stop the run more than drop back into coverage. The guy can tackle like nobody's business, but today's linebacker prototype is asked to do more than what Henderson is good at.
INRCP Projection: Round 3 or 4 pick, and could slip further

DRE MOORE

Position: Defensive Tackle
Key 2007 Stats: 63 tackles and 6 sacks (led the team)
Biggest Plus: Ideal size, strength and speed
Biggest Knock: Questionable motor, plays when he wants to
ESPN Draft Projection: Round 2 or 3 pick
NFL Draft Countdown Projection: Round 2 pick
INRCP Take: Moore is a guy that I just can't get excited about. Statistically, he had a good senior season, but on the field, he hardly dominated. Maryland had the 3rd-worst rushing defense in the ACC and consistently got run over by backs like James Davis and Yvenson Bernard during the season. You would expect a team with a top-five tackle and a top-five linebacker to squash the run game, but Moore never got it together like Glenn Dorsey or Sedrick Ellis did. He screams "Workout Warrior" to me. Kyle Miller says, "He'd probably be a good fit in a 3-4. We'll see how he adjusts to the NFL in terms of being more consistent, but he could dominate." I personally believe he should only go to a highly disciplined team that believes they can corral him and make him dedicated to becoming all that he can be.
INRCP Projection: Round 3 or 4 pick, but likely will go in round 2

ANDREW CRUMMEY

Position: Guard
Key 2007 Stats: Missed 5 games with a broken fibula
Biggest Plus: Versatile, anchor of some great lines in '05 and '06, technically sound
Biggest Knock: Not big enough and not strong enough in any one area
ESPN Draft Projection: Round 6 or 7 pick
NFL Draft Countdown Projection: Round 6 or 7 pick
INRCP Take: How the mighty have fallen - once a pre-season All American, Crummey slid doooooowwwn draft boards after breaking his leg. Although he played in the Emerald Bowl, his stock took another hit when he had to leave to NFL combine because his leg had not fully healed. However, Crummey is a sound blocker who was greatly respected before his injury, so he has upside, even if he is not as athletic as the ideal NFL guard. Kyle Miller says, "He was a first-day talent before he caught a bad break. He's a good run-blocker and has good size, and he would've intrigued teams." Crummey, if he heals, could be a steal on draft day.
INRCP Projection: Round 6 pick

JOEY HAYNOS

Position: Tight End
Key 2007 Stats: 30 receptions (2nd on the team) for 318 yds (3rd on the team)
Biggest Plus: Absurdly tall (nearly 6'8), a hard worker who was a walk-on
Biggest Knock: Not athletic, fast or overly strong
ESPN Draft Projection: Round 6 or 7 pick
NFL Draft Countdown Projection: Round 7 pick or undrafted
INRCP Take: Haynos took a step back this past season, mostly due to the unstable situation at quarterback. The guy was clutch in '06 with Sam Hollenbach at the helm, but mostly due to his size and modest receiving ability. He's worked hard to get where he is today, but in the NFL, I can't see him breaking beyond special teams. He doesn't fill a niche role and his frame needs to fill in as well.
INRCP Projection: Round 7 pick or undrafted

ISAIAH GARDNER

Position: Cornerback
Key 2007 Stats: 69 tackles, 10 passes broken up
Biggest Plus: Uh ....
Biggest Knock: Doesn't know how to play coverage even though he's a corner
ESPN Draft Projection: Undrafted
NFL Draft Countdown Projection: Undrafted
INRCP Take: Gardner is the kind of player that every team has who only seems to be highlighted by his mistakes. I cannot tell you how many times I wanted to throw up after one of his blown coverages was exploited. Passers intentionally threw to his side of the field because they knew he would be out of position. He ran a decent 4.41 forty time and had a great 42.5-inch vertical, but what does that matter if you can't play your position? If your team drafts him, it's a good sign that you might be a Jets fan.
INRCP Projection: Undrafted, possible CFL candidate

KEON LATTIMORE

Position: Running back
Key 2007 Stats: 900 all-pupose yards, 13 TDs
Biggest Plus: Elusive and instinctive runner
Biggest Knock: No elite speed, balance or strength
ESPN Draft Projection: Round 7 pick or undrafted
NFL Draft Countdown Projection: Undrafted
INRCP Take: Lattimore has some decent NFL skills, and there is a small chance he could find a team that needs a back. However, the RB class is too deep and Lattimore's measurables and pro day workouts were hampered by injuries. Even though Kyle and I are fans of Lattimore and think he could make it in the league, he'll find it tough, especially since he split so much time in college.
INRCP Projection: Undrafted

LANCE BALL

Position: Running back
Key 2007 Stats: 856 total yds, 12 TDs
Biggest Plus: Tough, gritty runner who performs consistently
Biggest Knock: Small, slow for NFL game
ESPN Draft Projection: Undrafted
NFL Draft Countdown Projection: Undrafted
INRCP Take: See Lattimore, Keon. Ball is another Maryland hero who potentially could find himself on an NFL roster if he really keeps working. However, things like his height and his lack of speed won't help him. There are just too many backs who have a better chance of getting on to an NFL roster.
INRCP Projection: Undrafted

J.J. Justice and Christian Varner are also players that have an outside chance of being drafted as safties, but I doubt it and no major site has them listed as draft prospects. They are both average college safeties, and the NFL is the best of the best. They may have an easier time finding a spot on a roster than Lattimore or Ball, but don't hold your breath waiting for them to be selected.

Cheer for your Terps on Saturday - there's a good chance we could see at least two go by the time the first day is over.

Photo Credit: Washington Post, UMTerps

INRCP's Mock Draft

Ed. Note: This mock draft is brought to you by Kyle Miller, a guy who scans web material all day about the draft. I personally trust his judgement, but if he's wrong, I claim absolutely no responsibility. Seriously. So don't whine.

The NFL Draft is coming up this month on the 26th. Besides being a thrilling TV spectacle (I fell asleep before the Raven's first pick last year), the draft is a great opportunity to celebrate young athletes. Unfortunately, I hardly know who they are past the top 10 prospects, so I did what any sports blog author would do: Made my roommate make a mock draft for me.

Here's his take and explanations:

1) MIAMI - DE CHRIS LONG: Other than Jake Long, C-Long is the most polished player in this draft. He’s no L.T., but Bill Parcells can use this kid in multiple positions in a weak Miami defense.

2) ST. LOUIS - DT GLENN DORSEY: Drafting Adam Carriker last year was a step in the right direction for the Rams on the defensive side of the ball. Now with Dorsey on the roster, Carriker will be able to move back to his defensive end position. Dorsey is the best 4-3 tackle in this draft with a rare blend of size, power, and athleticism. He could be the next Warren Sapp ... seriously.

3) ATLANTA - QB MATT RYAN: This just needs to happen. Joey Harrington is their starting quarterback right now ... Are you f***ing kidding me?

4) OAKLAND - RB DARREN MCFADDEN: Chris Long and Jake Long may be the most polished, but Run DMC is the best talent and given Oakland’s lack of real depth at running back, McFadden is a great prospect. If he runs in the NFL like he did in college, say hello to The Juice part II.

5) KANSAS CITY - OT JAKE LONG: Larry Johnson is personally flying this kid to KC if he falls to them. He is the kind of guy you can build a line around. He has a nasty demeanor, great push in the running game, and is a very solid pass blocker. Not as good as Joe Thomas of last year’s draft, but he is bar-none the best O-lineman in a deep tackle draft.

6) NYJ – DE/OLB VERNON GHOLSTON: This won’t take but about 2 seconds for the Jets to think through - he is the best pass rusher in this draft. He made Jake Long look average in the Ohio State - Michigan game, registering two sacks. He also possesses a rare blend of size (6’4-265) and athleticism (45 inch vertical, 37 bench press, 4.6 speed). Just the guy they need to get after Brady.

7) NEW ENGLAND – CB LEODIS MCKELVIN: This makes sense on a lot of levels. One, he is the best cornerback in this draft. The patriots lost key players in their secondary. Also, he is a big-time return man. Has great ball skills and can run with anyone.

8) BALTIMORE – CB DOMINIQUE RODGERS CROMARTIE: Yes, they need a QB (ed. note: I'm pretty certain Troy Smith is the answer, but maybe to be safe ...) but there is no quarterback worth this pick. Chris McCallister is getting old and they need to start grooming replacements for some of those playmakers that made that defense great.

9) CINCINNATI – DT SEDRICK ELLIS: Some believe he is the top DT in the draft. My mock obviously begs to differ. However, this would be an amazing pickup for the Bengals who have essentially had the Brokeback Mountain technique run on their defensive front seven for the past few years. Ellis provides an interior pass rush as well as the ability to make plays behind the line of scrimmage against the run.

10) NEW ORLEANS – LB KEITH RIVERS: It sucks for the Saints that Ellis went to Cincinnati but Keith Rivers is the best linebacker in this draft. Reliable tackler, good cover man, and with John Vilma next to him, that looks like a linebacker corps to take seriously. The Saints are going in the right direction in terms of rebuilding the defense.

11) BUFFALO – WR MALCOLM KELLY: When Lee Evans is your top receiver, you’re in trouble - he is not as complete as a No. 1 receiver should be (ed. note: and he kills your fantasy team). Malcolm Kelly is 6’4 230 pounds, can make all the pro catches, and has some wheels on him to go deep. Plus, his presence could make the Lee Evans go route more deadly.

12) DENVER – OT RYAN CLADY: This is a definite need pick for Denver in order to get younger up front. In addition, Clady himself said he felt more comfortable in a zone-blocking scheme.

13) CAROLINA – DE DERRICK HARVEY: Mike Rucker is gone. So is Kris Jenkins. Derrick Harvey is an animal in terms of rushing the passer (MVP of BCS Championship: 3 sacks on Troy Smith). If Julius Peppers even bothers showing up on the field, Harvey can get a lot of one-on-one matchups.

14) CHICAGO – RB RASHARD MENDENHALL: They made a mistake letting go of Thomas Jones and leaving their running game in the hands (or lack there of) of Cedric Benson. Mendenhall has great strength, size, and speed. Hopefully he works out for them in order to put Ceddy the Human Teddy on the bench.

15) DETROIT – OT CHRIS WILLIAMS: He is one of the more highly regarded left tackles in this draft and too good of a prospect to pass up. He pass blocks like no other (only 2 sacks his last two seasons at Vanderbilt) so Detroit’s QB can actually stay vertical.

16) ARIZONA – CB MIKE JENKINS: They wish Keith Rivers fell to them but they still get value in Mike Jenkins. Playmaker at the corner position. Has good ball skills and timed well at the combine. Can instantly help Arizona’s defense.

17) MINNESOTA – DE PHILLIP MERLING: One of their defensive ends unfortunately came down with a career threatening disease. Phillip Merling is a playmaker, a very hard worker, and while he may not have eye-popping measurables, his game film definitely shows a DE that has all the tools to have a successful NFL career.

18) HOUSTON – RB JONATHAN STEWART: They don’t care about his injury. He will be healthy by the start of the season. Running back is one of the easiest positions to play in transition from college to the pros. Ahman Green is getting old and they need a back that can handle the 20-25 carry load in the future.

19) PHILADELPHIA – OT JEFF OTAH: They could go with DeSean Jackson here but Andy Reid is the kind of coach that loves to build the trenches in the draft. He can step in immediately and give Winston Justice serious competition. He is raw as hell, but is a mauler and has decent pass-blocking skills. Could be a starter within the next year or so.

20) TAMPA BAY – WR DESEAN JACKSON: Joey Galloway is like 60 and Garcia had no one else to throw the ball to. Jackson is small but he is a playmaker at the receiver position and in the return game. He is deadly in the open field. Tampa can use him a million different ways.

21) WASHINGTON – WR LIMAS SWEED: Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, and ... my point exactly (ed. note: Brandon Lloyd really worked out, didn't he?). They need another receiver to help compliment Moss and help bring along young Jason Campbell. He has breakaway speed, can win 80% of jump balls, and can make all the difficult catches necessary to be successful in this league.

22) DALLAS – RB FELIX JONES: Perfect complement to Marion the Barbarian. He can catch balls out of the backfield and has some burners on him (4.45 speed).

23) PITTSBURGH – OG BRANDON ALBERT: This is just too easy. Kevin Colbert and Mike Tomlin tear their hamstrings running to hand in their selection to Roger Goodell. He projects to play LG immediately and LT in the near future. He is nasty with excellent pass-blocking skills(something the Steelers would’ve killed for last year). He also gets great push in the running game. In short, he’s a freak of nature.

24) TENNESSEE – LB JEROD MAYO: They wished Limas Sweed fell to them but Keith Bulluck is getting old and this kid would be a great addition to an already good defense. Mayo can flow through traffic, making tackles in the trenches, and has a ridiculous motor.

25) SEATTLE – TE DUSTIN KELLER: They do not have a good tight end . They could go with Fred Davis but Keller is bigger, better blocker and a more versatile tight end. Hopefully he can make Seahawks fans forget about that asshole Jerramy f***ing Stevens (ed. note: who raped someone in college).

26) JACKSONVILLE – DT KENTWAN BALMER: Had a pretty productive career at North Carolina. Can help the Jaguar’s interior and step in where John Henderson was.

27) SAN DIEGO – CB AQUIB TALIB: Not only did they lose Drayton Florence, this is way too good for the chragers to pass up. Talib is a top-10 caliber corner. He can make plays in the secondary, has great ball skills, and he is not afraid to take risks, which isn’t terrible when thinking about the Charger’s pass rush.

28) DALLAS - WR DEVIN THOMAS: He can provide another big strong weapon for Tony Romo in that offense. Good return man, good speed and fluid athleticism.

29) SAN FRANCISCO – DE QUENTIN GROVES: This is more of a luxury pick for the 49ers since there are no O-lineman worth taking here. Nonetheless, he is one of the best pass rushers in this draft. He's got great timed speed and great strength to beat big offensive tackles off the edge.

30) GREEN BAY – CB BRANDON FLOWERS: They need a corner and all the top corners are taken. Brandon Flowers is polished and experienced. Plus he would be playing with two of the better corners in the league (Al Harris and Charles Woodson).

31) NEW ENGLAND – Canon EOS 5D Digital Camera.

32) NYG – S KENNY PHILLIPS: He is the best safety by far in this draft, and the Giants need a safety to put in the secondary. He had a disappointing junior season, but he has all the tools necessary to be a starter in this league. Excellent range, hard hitter, and he’s a safety from the U. What more do you want?

Thanks for your perspective Kyle, and readers, leave a comment.

Erin Henderson to leave for the NFL

Maryland linebacker Erin Henderson, a Butkus award semi-finalist, announced yesterday that he's throwing his hat into the ring of the NFL Draft. The move was definitely not expected - the possibility was lurking throughout the season and his exit was probably hastened by threat of injury and the idea that he has nothing left to prove. Plus, it was kind of a big hint that he just graduated at the end of last semester.

In a statement to the press, he said:

After the first four or five games [this season], I kind of already knew," Henderson said. "But I just didn't want it to be a media thing.

That makes sense. I think it shows a lot of maturity that someone could be so tight-lipped about such a personal decision to honor the interests of a team. I'm pretty sure he didn't talk about it at all until after the regular season. I felt that often, Erin Henderson seemed to be the only person on the field who wrapped up correctly and could stop the run. It says a lot about him that he always tried when he was on the field and played despite multiple injuries that could've endangered his future. Henderson led the ACC in tackles per game with 11.1 this season, as reported by the Diamondback. I only wish him a bright future and acknowledge that this is the smartest thing he could've done for himself.

Dave Philistin will likely be the replacement as leader of the linebacking corps and the defense. He, too, can tackle, as demonstrated by his 21 tackles against Georgia Tech this season. Actually, the Terps defense is set to lose a bunch of seniors at defensive tackle and in the secondary. We'll see how that one goes. I think the Fridge is going to have another interesting year in 2008.

Photo Credits: Washington Post, Washington Post Express